【摘要】 针对水—岩作用中的不确定性现象 ,运用随机分析的方法对水—岩作用状况进行分析。通过本次研究的化学平衡计算与Monte -Carlo耦合程序 ,对某坝基两处水—岩作用状况进行了分析评价。结果表明 :可信度分析在水—岩作用水文地球化学模拟中有很好的实用性和应用前景 ,水化学数据的不确定性对分析结果的均值和方差影响较大 ,而对评价水—岩状态可信度概率的影响相对较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to the uncertainty in the water-rock interaction, reliability analysis is used to simulate the status of the water-rock system . This paper simulates and evaluates the interaction between water and grouts by a coupled Monte-Carlo chemical equilibrium model that was developed during this study .The results show that risk analysis provides the confirmation for the reliability of water-rock interaction .The error in the hydrochemical analysis data can strongly effect the mean and variance of the results while the reliability in evaluating the status of water-rock interaction varies little.更多还原