【摘要】 本文利用住宅市场的供求关系理论,解释了投机需求对住宅市场价格的影响以及价格泡沫的形成机制。综合考虑社会经济基础与投机因素对市场价格的作用,结合已有的泡沫经济理论,建立了关于住宅市场价格的实证分析模型,并从中分离出泡沫部分,为价格泡沫的定量研究提供了依据。作者以北京住宅市场的年度数据为分析对象,建立了相应的价格决定模型,计算了近十几年来价格泡沫的变化量,并针对目前北京住宅价格中的泡沫含量给出了定量分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the demand - supply theory, the paper explains the effect of speculative demand on housing price and the formation mechanism of price bubbles. Considering the effects of the economic fundamentals and the speculative behaviors on housing price, the paper presents an empirical model of housing price, from which the bubble component can be separated. Using the annual price data in Beijing, the price - determinated model is established. Then the quantitative analysis on the changes of bubble components in housing price in the past decades is performed.更多还原