【摘要】 目的　探讨期间中山市鼻咽癌死亡规律 ,并建立其数学模型 ,为中山市鼻咽癌防治提供科学依据。　方法　整理期间中山市肿瘤登记资料中的鼻咽癌死亡资料 ,计算其死亡粗率、标化死亡率 ,并以其逐年世界标化死亡率为基础 ,建立其 Box- Jenkins时间序列模型 ,预测中山市近期鼻咽癌死亡状况。　结果　期间中山市鼻咽癌死亡率虽然有一定的波动 ,但总的呈上升趋势 ,平均增长速度为 1 .2 7% ,根据模型预测其 2 0 0 0年世界标化死亡率为 1 4 .97/ 1 0 5。　结论　期间中山市鼻咽癌死亡率呈上升趋势 ,其原因可能与其发病上升等因素有关 ,值得进一步分析研究更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore how NPC morality rate changes in Zhongshan in 1970~1999, and to set up a mathematic model to provide scientific information for cancer prevention and treatment in Zhongshan. Methods Indicators such as crude and standardized mortality rate of NPC were calculated or analyzed based on NPC registered data in Zhongshan in1970~1999. Box-Jenkins Model was also set up and used to predict its mortality levels in near future. Result Although it fluctuated, the NPC mortality in Zhongshan in 1970 ~1999 showed an increasing trend. The average increasing velocity was 1.27%. According to the prediction of the Box-Jenkins model, NPC mortality rate in Zongshan in 2000 would be 14.97/105. Conclusion There was an increasing trend for the NPC mortality rate in Zhongshan during the period. It may be associated with the increasing trend of NPC incidence in Zhongshan in 1970~1999, and should be analyzed further.更多还原