【摘要】 农业用水安全预警可分为水量预警和水质预警2方面。在区域农业用水供水量以及需水量调查研究基础上,结合供、需水发展趋势,对东北区农业用水进行了预测研究,并依据农业用水保证率对东北区农业用水发展趋势给出了相应的警戒等级。结果表明,在现状供水条件下,如采取耗水发展模式东北区缺水将最为严重,现状供水与节水和潜状供水与耗水发展模式相对于现状供水与耗水发展模式农业用水的缺水状况有所缓解,但是均有不同程度的缺水现象,潜状供水与节水模式耦合分析表明东北区在2030年以前农业用水基本得到保障,仅在2030年缺水1.57×10¹⁰m³,但是水资源保证率为0.83属无警戒状态。针对东北区农业用水安全问题,提出了保障东北农业用水安全的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Early warning for agricultural water security can be divided into water quantity and water quality early warning. Based on agricultural water supply and water requirement analyses, and trends in water supply and water requirement, agricultural water security in the northeast region of China is forecasted. According to the ratio of agricultural water supply and requirement, trends in agricultural water are ranked in different classes. In the current water supply and water-consuming mode, the northeast region water resource is scarce. The water resource situation is better in the current water supply and water-saving mode or potential water supply and water-consuming mode compared with the current water supply and water consuming mode; however water supply is inadequate for development. Before 2030, agricultural water could be secured by the potential water supply and water-saving mode, but currently up to 2030 in the no warning situation, there is a 1. 57 × 1010 m3 water shortage. To address the problem of the agricultural water, suggestions are presented to ensure agricultural water security.更多还原