【摘要】 截流系统受到水文水力等随机因素的影响,因此,设计的截流方案的风险如何是需要全面考虑的。本文从截流系统的风险认识入手,确定出能够反映截流系统风险的系统量,在理论分析的基础上,提出采用随机模拟计算方法来计算既考虑水文不确定性又考虑水力不确定性的截流系统风险计算方法,实例验证该方法的可行性。从而可以为截流系统的方案设计与比较起到辅助决策作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In analyzing risks of closure works system, the authors took into account of all the risk factors for designing closure works system, which are influenced by random factors of hydraulics and hydrology. The variables of the closure works system risks were defined. A set of calculation methods of using stochastic simulation to study the closure works system risks were presented on the basis of theoretical analysis. The result of case study showed that the methods were feasible and can be applied as an assistant tool in designing and selecting closure works system scheme.更多还原