【摘要】 本文以 2 0 0 0年在《中国证券报》上发表的股评家的预测文章为样本 ,建立了 3组回归方程来研究股评家对于大盘预测的准确性及影响预测的影响因素。研究结果发现 ,股评家的短期预测平均而言是一个未来大盘收益率的一个反向指标。宠观的经济面信息、前一天的公众舆论和前 3天的大盘平均收益率都对于股评家的预测有显著影响 ,其中以公众舆论的影响作用最大。在这些因素中 ,宏观的经济面信息有助于提高股评家预测的准确性 ,而其他因素则降低了股评家预测的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes the forecasting articles that appeared on China Securities in 2000 as the samples and establish 3 groups of regression equations to research the veracity of the index predictions by the securities newsletters and the factors that can influence the predictions. The results show that on average the short term prediction of the securities newsletters is a reverse index of the future movement of the index. All of the three factors, which are macroeconomics news, the consensus of the previous day and the average return of the previous three days, have significant impact on the prediction of the newsletters and the consensus is the most predominant one. Among these factors, macroeconomics news are helpful to increase the correct probability of the predictions while others are negative.更多还原