【摘要】 采用层次分析方法 ,将水利工程经济效益系统分为防洪、发电、灌溉效益子系统 ,辨识出风险因子 ,建立了基于最大熵原理 (准则 )的经济效益风险分析模型 ,并给出求解方法。本文对总系统经济效益风险进行分析考虑了两种思路 :一是对辩识出的风险因子进行概率分析 ,直接由最大熵模型得出总效益指标的密度函数 ;二是按照“风险树”的思路 ,先分析子系统效益的风险特性 ,再进行风险组合 ,从而考察总效益的风险性。最后用实例验证了该模型的可行性和实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Adopting the method of separated analysis, the general economic benefit system for water conservancy projects is in this paper dividesd into flood control, power generation and irrigation benefi subsystems their respective risk factors are then identified and a risk analysis model of economic benefit is established based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, the solving method is also presented. This paper analyzes the reisk of general economic benefits in two ways:one is to obtain the density function of the total benefit indices through a direct probability analysis of the identified factors of the system by the Maximum Entropy Model; whik the other is to analyze the risk characteristics of the subsystem the benefit of first, and then to integrate the risks to examine the probability of the general system according to the idea of “Risk Tree”. At the end of this paper, an example is provided to verity the feasibility and practicality of the model.更多还原