【摘要】 基于污垢热阻在线监测系统测试数据 ,经过相应热阻序列自相关函数、偏相关函数的性质分析 ,一定精度预报模型的初步建立 ,以及对预报模型的识别、估计和检验 ,最终求得该热阻序列的标准模型。应用该模型进行预报分析 ,结果表明 :在一定的预报期内 ,污垢监测系统的误差不超过 6% ,从而进一步论证了污垢热阻在线监测技术的可靠性及合理性 ,为该监测技术的工程应用提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data obtained from the on\|line fouling thermal resistance monitoring system and an analysis of the characteristics of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function of the thermal resistance series, a prediction model with reasonable accuracy was developed. The identification, estimation and checking of the prediction model were performed and the final standard model was obtained. The standard model was used for the prediction and results show that the uncertainty of the monitor system is less than 6% within a certain prediction period. It can be concluded that on\|line monitoring technology is reliable, rational and suitable for real engineering application.更多还原