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污垢在线监测技术不确定性的时间序列法分析

Uncertainty analysis of on-line fouling resistance monitoring technology with times series analysis method

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【作者】 孙灵芳徐凤彬杨善让徐志明

【Author】 SUN Ling\|fang 1,2 , XU Feng\|bin 2, YANG Shan\|rang 2, XU Zhi\|ming 2 ( 1.Energy Conservation and Measure\|control Technique Research Center, Northeast China Inst. of Electric Power Engineering,Jilin 132012,China; 2.Dept. of Power Engineering North China Electric Power Univ., Baoding 071003, China )

【机构】 东北电力学院节能与测控技术研究中心东北电力学院节能与测控技术研究中心 吉林吉林132012华北电力大学动力系河北保定071003吉林吉林132012吉林吉林132012

【摘要】 基于污垢热阻在线监测系统测试数据 ,经过相应热阻序列自相关函数、偏相关函数的性质分析 ,一定精度预报模型的初步建立 ,以及对预报模型的识别、估计和检验 ,最终求得该热阻序列的标准模型。应用该模型进行预报分析 ,结果表明 :在一定的预报期内 ,污垢监测系统的误差不超过 6% ,从而进一步论证了污垢热阻在线监测技术的可靠性及合理性 ,为该监测技术的工程应用提供了理论依据。

【Abstract】 Based on the data obtained from the on\|line fouling thermal resistance monitoring system and an analysis of the characteristics of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function of the thermal resistance series, a prediction model with reasonable accuracy was developed. The identification, estimation and checking of the prediction model were performed and the final standard model was obtained. The standard model was used for the prediction and results show that the uncertainty of the monitor system is less than 6% within a certain prediction period. It can be concluded that on\|line monitoring technology is reliable, rational and suitable for real engineering application.

【基金】 吉林省科技发展计划项目 ( 2 0 0 2 0 412 )
  • 【文献出处】 热科学与技术 ,Journal of Thermal Science and Technology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2003年03期
  • 【分类号】TP277
  • 【被引频次】7
  • 【下载频次】158
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