【摘要】 采用气象要素定义伏旱指数 ,利用小波分析等方法分析重庆地区伏旱变化特征 ,最后采用BP神经网络模型对伏旱进行预测试验 ,结果表明 ,重庆伏旱变化具有明显的阶段性特征 ,而基于BP神经网络模型的伏旱预测模型预测效果良好 ,可以应用于实际预测更多还原

【Abstract】 The late summer drought indexes are defined by using meteorological elements. And the variations of late summer drought in Chongqing is made with analysis of wavelet. The late summer drought prediction model based on BP neural network is established, too. The results show that the variations of late summer drought in Chongqing contain obvious periodic features. The model is a superior and useful one for the actual operational forecasting.更多还原