【摘要】 简要介绍了中国科学院大气物理研究所 2 0 0 2年汛期预测的结果。作者首先利用IAPENSO预测系统 ,较好地预测出 2 0 0 2年夏季将有一个强度偏弱的ElN no事件发生 ;IAP动力学气候预测系统 (IAPDCP II)的跨季度预测结果则表明 2 0 0 2年夏季我国华北和东北大部将持续干旱少雨 ,长江下游和南方大部地区降水较常年偏多 ;在数值预测的基础上 ,结合其他的动力统计预测方法 ,最终得到中国科学院大气物理研究所 2 0 0 2年夏季旱涝趋势的跨季度集成预测结果。与实况比较表明 ,IAPDCP II预测和集成预报均较好地预测出我国夏季旱涝的大范围形势分布 ,特别是动力数值预测的效果在我国东部略优于集成预测。至于汛期 (6～ 8月 )每天的天气分析研究和数值天气预报 ,则表明国内外现有的中高分辨率数值天气预报模式均有很好的预测能力 ,并给出了我国长江流域和华北地区 2 0 0 2年持续性降水的天气学模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real-time weather and seasonal climate predictions conducted in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) for year 2002 are summarized .The prediction by IAP ENSO prediction system shows that there will be a moderate El Nio event occurred during 2002 summer, which agrees quite well with the observation. By using IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II), the real-time extra-seasonal prediction shows that the drought conditions will appear over North China and most part of Northeast China during summer season, on the other hand, over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and most part of South China, the predicted summer rainfall will be more than normal. Finally,the integrated prediction product for the summer rainfall anomalies is obtained by incorporating the numerical prediction results and the results by other dynamical and statistical prediction methods. Verification results show that either dynamical prediction or integrated prediction all agrees quite well with the observed large-scale patterns of rainfall anomalies distribution during the summer of 2002, and the prediction skill for the dynamical prediction is higher than that for integrated prediction over Eastern China. In addition, the routinely daily weather pattern analyses and numerical weather prediction during rainy season (June-August) in 2002 show that, there exist several patterns with large and meso-α scale characteristics that result in persistent rainfall in the Yangtze River basin and North China, and current generation of numerical weather prediction models with moderate and high resolution can all predict quite well the observed weather pattern and precipitation during rainy season in 2002.更多还原