【摘要】 为探讨温室气体减排中国际合作的潜力,按照《联合国气候变化框架公约》的附件I国家和非附件I国家两大阵营,根据边际减排成本的差异分析合作的可能性,根据动态优化原理分析合作的潜力。接着以《京都议定书》的第一承诺期为例,分析人均分配排放空间的前提下,全球合作减排的潜力和收益、减排量的价格以及中国参与国际合作的潜力和收益。分析表明,温室气体稳定浓度650mg/L时,按2000年人口平均分配排放权,两大阵营合作潜力为1.10Gt.a-1,价格为20.7美元.t-1,附件I国家可节约成本285亿美元.a-1;中国转让剩余排放权可得105.4亿美元.a-1,参与减排合作可得48.7亿美元.a-1。因此中国应积极参与国际减排合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dynamic optimization was used to analyze international cooperation potential of greenhouse gas abatement considering annex I countries and nonannex I countries according to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The model was then used to analyze the potential of international cooperation, the price of emission reduction, and the potential revenue for China to participate in international cooperation in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. For greenhouse gas concentration less than 650 mg/L with emission quotas specified relative to the year 2000 population, an international cooperation potential is 1.10 Gt·a-1, a greenhouse gas price is 20.7 USD·t-1, a cost savings for Annex I countries is 28.5×109 USD·a-1, China can receive 10.54×109 USD·a-1 by transferring emission guotas and 4.87×109 USD·a-1 through cooperative emission reductions. Therefore, international cooperation to mitigate global climate change will greatly benefit China, so China should actively participation the international cooperation. 更多还原