【摘要】 主要讨论了产业成长周期与产业成长速度的特征。首先指出,在产出能力不减的假设下,许多产业的产出序列服从逻辑函数特征;然后,对产业成长周期、成长速度的相关概念进行了定义与约定;进而结合对国内外18个产业成长过程实证研究的结果,对产业成长速度的类型和界定标准进行了定量的分析;最后,从产业的导入状态、产业的代谢机制和产业的逻辑上界3个方面,讨论了决定产业成长速度的主要因素及其对产业成长速度的制约作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The growing circle and pace of an industry is discussed in this paper. The author points out that the output series of many industries belong to the logistic function, if the productivity is not decreasing. The main factors determining the growing circle and pace of an industry and the ways through which the factors work are illustrided according to the investegation results from the eighteen industries both in and out of China.更多还原