【摘要】 目的 预测糖尿病死亡率的变化趋势。方法 利用灰色系统GM（1,1）预测模型Y（t）=[x（1）-u/a]e^-a（t-1）+u/a分别预测1999—2004年糖尿病的死亡率趋势。结果 依据某市1991—1998年糖尿病死亡率资料,所建立的灰色预测模型为:Y（t）=492.36e^{0.0328（t-1）}-477.03,拟合结果显示,模型的平均误差率为1.8％,精度为优（C=0.29,P=1）。结论 预测结果表明:近10年来糖尿病的死亡率呈持续上升趋势,建议有关部门加强糖尿病的防治工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To predict the changing trend of the death rate of DM. Methods Using the grey systemic GM(1,1) forecast model Y(t) = [x(l) - u/a]e~a(t-1) + u/a, we predict the trend of the death rate of DM from 1999 to 2004. Results Based on the death rate of DM from 1991 to 1998, we made the grey systemic forecast model. V(t) = 492.36e0.0328(s-1)- 477.03. The fitting results show that the equal error rate of the model is 1.8%, the precision is super (C = 0.29, P = l). Conclusion Our results show that the death rate of DM of latest ten years is upwards continuously.更多还原