【摘要】 目的 :2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,海门市实施以改水、管粮、预防乙肝为主要内容的环境因素干预措施进行肝癌防治 ,肝癌发病率有所下降。为分析 1969年～ 2 0 0 1年海门市肝癌死亡率的变动趋势是随机因素造成抑或干预措施所致 ,开展了本次研究。方法 :本文应用游程检验法 (建立 ARIMA模型拟合 )和线性趋势检验法 ( ASTSA For Windows软件和 SPSS10 .0软件 )对肝癌死亡率的时间序列进行平稳性检验和死亡率趋势的显著性检验。结果 :海门市 1969年以来肝癌死亡率波动于3 3 .18/ 10万～ 74.66/ 10万之间 ,1969年～ 1979年平均递增速度为 4.0 4% ;1979年～ 1989年递增速度为 3 .66% ;1989年～ 2 0 0 1年递增速度为 - 2 .3 0 %。海门市 1969年～ 2 0 0 1年肝癌死亡率的时间序列是非平稳的 ,1990年以后死亡率下降趋势有统计学意义。结论 :海门采取的环境因素干预综合防治措施对预防肝癌有一定的实际价值更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: Since 1980’s intervention measures against environmental risk factors have been performed to prevent and control the occurrence of HCC. The major measures include drinking water quality control, improvement of food store and HBV prevention. We focus on the study of the trend of the mortality of the HCC in Haimen was to random or due to the intervention measures. Methods:the non-parameter test method was used to test the stability of the time series of the mortality data. ARIMA models were fixed and the test of the significance of the linear trend were performed using ASTSA for Windows and the SPSS10.0 software. Result: the mortality in Haimen has been fluctuated from 33.18/100 000 to 74.66/100 000 since 1969.The mortality of HCC increased at an average speed of 4.04%,3.66%,and -2.30%during 1969～1979,1979～1989,and 1989～2001,respectively.It showed that the time series of the HCC mortality during 1969～2001 in Haimen was unstable. The decreasing trend of HCC after 1990 was significant.Conelusion: The combined interventions measures were valuable to prevent HCC.更多还原