【摘要】 旅游业中许多问题都涉及到动态和非线性的关系,给旅游规划带来相当大的影响,利用系统动力学有助于解决这些问题。文章通过对运用此方法的步骤和原则的介绍,探讨系统动力学在旅游规划中运用的理论意义和科学价值,并且以桂林旅游规划为实例加以说明。更多还原

【Abstract】 The complex system of tourism, characterized by the non - linear and dynamic relationships, always brings difficulties for tourism planners. As a result, many tourism planning can not be proved to be effective in the long run.Guilin case is used to demonstrate the learning process of tourism development through the construction of system dynamic model. Quilin is one of the earliest four tourism regions opened to international tourists in China. It has the advantage of easy access compared with the other tourism sites. However, its market share keeps on declining with its tourism development. Various researches have been done to address this issue but many have emphasized the exogenous factors, such as the South - east Asian financial crisis, etc. Yet, the over- supply of tourism development resorts has not been understood. Therefore, the further decline of Guilin tourism will keep on going. A system dynamic model has been built to understand the impact of rush development of tourism resorts on the Guilin tourism industry development and to formulate policies to address this issue. The study has been found out Guilin tourism depends on its attractiveness that has been, a public resources for all the stakeholders’of Guilin tourism industry. Rush for resort development is in fact a free riding of Guilin attractiveness that has been built on for centuries. Yet since attractiveness is an intangible, indivisible and immeasurable resource, it is difficult and maybe impossible for the tourism management bureaus to monitor and manage it directly in Guilin. However, by constructing and playing the system dynamics model, the stakeholders have to go through the learning process of the problem. Therefore a shared vision can be obtained by the stakeholders that careful and selective approval of the new resort development is the precondition for sustainable development of Guilin tourism.更多还原