【摘要】 基于混沌理论、相空间重构思想和嵌入理论分析涟水流域溶解氧的时间序列 ,计算吸引子维数和最大的Lyapunov指数 ,研究河流水质系统的复杂性特征 .结果表明 ,河流溶解氧时间序列具有混沌特性 ,其外在表现为貌似随机的无规则特点 ;但系统本身内在的、固有的规律 (表现在最大的Lyapunov指数 ) ,表明短期预测河流水质变化是可行的 ,并应用混沌相空间模线性回归模型进行了预测 ,其预测结果对涟水流域的水质管理和控制具有一定的参考价值更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on chaos theory, phase space reconstruction and embedding theory, time series of dissolved oxygen of Lian River are analyzed. Meanwhile, attractors’ dimension and maximum Lyapunov exponent are also calculated. The results show that dissolved oxygen time series of river basin has chaotic property. It appears the seemingly irregular movement, but intrinsic orderliness of system (characterized by maximal Lyapunov exponent) has demonstrated that short term forecasting of water quality is feasible. And water quality of river has been forecasted by using a chaos phase space mode linear regression method. Several conclusions are instructive to the environmental management in Lishui River.更多还原