【摘要】 针对水利水电项目经济评价中存在着众多模糊不确定因素的客观实际,分析了影响经济风险的模糊不确定性因素的特点;引入了模糊事件及模糊概率的概念、表达式和计算方法,研究了基于模糊不确定性的水利水电项目经济风险分析方法和风险评价指标.结合实例对方法进行验证,并与分析技术法的结果进行了对比分析,结果表明方法是可行的.更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the fact that many fuzzy uncertainty factors exist in the economic evaluation of water resources and hydropower projects, an analysis is made on the characteristics of the fuzzy uncertainty factors that affect the economic risk. Then the concept of and calculating method for the fuzzy probability of fuzzy events are introduced into the study of the fuzzy uncertaintybased economic risk analysis method and risk evaluation indexes for water resources and hydropower projects. In combination with a practical project, the feasibility of the method is verified by a comparison of the calculated results in this paper with those obtained by the technical analysis method.更多还原