【摘要】 通过双总体滑动t检验法验证非典型性肺炎疫情的发展过程中在患病人数方面存在均值突变。给出了脆性,脆性源和脆性接收者的定义,并给出了脆性的基本特性.在介绍突变理论的7种初等突变的基础上,利用尖点突变模型对2003年春发生在中国的非典型性肺炎疫情的发生和发展作了直观的分析.根据国家卫生部公布的4月至5月的疫情报告,以北京为例进行突变检测分析.采用的是双总体滑动t检验法.分析疫情的发展趋势,预测了疫情未来的发展趋势并对其进行了验证.在此分析的基础上,利用脆性理论对非典型性肺炎进行了脆性分析.分析得出,如果没有极时地采取有效的控制措施,则民众对非典型性肺炎疫情的恐慌心理会影响到社会的稳定.更多还原

【Abstract】 Through the double ensemble slide t detected method to proof the existence of mean value catastrophe in the number of accurate diagnosis in the development of SARS.In this paper, definitions of brittleness, brittle source and brittle receiver as well as the basic characteristics were given. On the basis of introducing seven kinds of primary catastrophes of catastrophe theory, the occurrence and the development of SARS, which took place in China in spring of 2003, were directly analyzed by using cusp catastrophe model. According to the data from Ministry of Health P.R. China from April to May in 2003, catastrophic detection and analysis were made by taking Beijing as an example. The detected method is double ensemble slide t detected method. Through analyzing the tendency ness of the SARS, the coming tendency of SARS was predicted and the correctness of the method was proved. Based on this analysis, the brittleness analysis was given by using brittleness theory.The result of analysis is that the panic mind for SARS of the common people will have an effect on the stability of society if we don’t take effective measures in time.更多还原