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需求信息预测与处理中的牛鞭效应分析与控制
Analysis and Control on the Bullwhip Effect in the Course of Forecastng and Procecssing of Demand Information
【摘要】 研究了不稳定的市场需求下一个生产商和一个零售商所组成的两层次的简单供应链系统。提出当零售商预测信息的过程中并不存在牛鞭效应现象,而在生产商和零售商利用库存策略处理需求信息的过程中却显著存在牛鞭效应现象。证明了利用信息共享的方式可以控制牛鞭效应,但不能完全消除牛鞭效应。
【Abstract】 The existence of the bullwhip effect was considered for a simple twolevel supply chain comprising a single manufacturer and a single retailer with nonstationary end demand.The demand variability is decreasing in the processing of retailers forecasting.But the demand variability increases significantly in the course of processing the demand information by both the retailer and manufacturer.And information sharing can reduce the bullwhip effect,but cannot eliminate it absolutely.
【关键词】 牛鞭效应;
供应链管理;
预测;
库存策略;
信息共享;
【Key words】 the bullwhip effect; supply chain management; forecasting; inventory policy; information sharing;
【Key words】 the bullwhip effect; supply chain management; forecasting; inventory policy; information sharing;
- 【文献出处】 管理工程学报 ,Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management , 编辑部邮箱 ,2003年04期
- 【分类号】F224
- 【被引频次】84
- 【下载频次】1144