【摘要】 伊拉克危机可能出现的不同结局及其影响既近在咫尺,又扑朔迷离。如果伊拉克危机以战争的方式解决,那么战后的伊拉克政治和经济格局都将彻底改变。伊拉克重建将分成短期、中期和长期3个阶段,各个阶段的安全、经济和管理目标将各有不同的侧重点。新政府将出台新的石油政策,而美国政府将在其中发挥举足轻重的作用。伊拉克的生产和出口基础设施已经在两次战争中被严重毁坏,即使在目前基础上重建,也需要花费18个月至3年的时间,投入50亿美元,才能把产能提高到350万桶/日。美伊战争后,需借助国际和伊拉克国内的力量,制定伊拉克石油工业重建的综合性方案。我国石油企业可以利用自身的优势和实力或与其他国家的石油公司结盟,参与伊拉克的石油工业重建。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is difficult to predict the aftermath and influence of the Iraqi crisis. If the Iraqi crisis is settled by means of war, the political and economic situation in Iraq will be entirely changed after the war. Reconstruction of Iraq will be divided into three stages - short-term, medium-term and long-term . The economic and administrative targets are quite different at those different stages. The new Administration will release some new petroleum policies, in which the US Government will play an important role. The infrastructure for production and export in Iraq has been badly destructed in the two previous wars. It will take 18-36 months with an investment of US$5 billion to boost the productivity to 3.5 million barrels per day even if reconstruction starts on the basis of the current facilities. After the US-Iraqi war, it is necessary to need the help from the international community and the Iraqi domestic parties to formulate the comprehensive plan for reconstruction of Iraq. The Chinese petroleum enterprises can take advantage of their technical capacity and experience or come into alliance with other foreign oil companies to involve themselves in reconstruction of the Iraqi petroleum industry.更多还原