【摘要】 从湖南省近50年长序列耕地统计以及相关社会经济资料,分析其耕地数量变化趋势,运用主成分分析法对影响耕地变化的驱动因素进行探讨。研究表明:经济发展变化、社会系统压力和科技进步是影响湖南省耕地数量变化的主要驱动力,并在此基础上,通过建立多元回归模型,预测2010年的耕地数量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on statistical and survey data from 1949 to 1999 at provincial and county levels, this article discusses the trend of cultivated land change and its driving forces in Hunan Province during the past 50 years. The study has shown that the main driving forces influencing the total amount of farmland in Hunan Province are change of economic development, pressure from social system, and advance of science and technology. By using regressive equation, the paper foresees the amount of cultivated land in Hunan Province.更多还原