【摘要】 负荷预测精度是对电网的负荷预测结果相对于实际发生负荷的偏离程度的事后衡量指标 ,是电力主管部门促进各级负荷预测部门提高负荷预测精度的考核手段之一。现行的两种考核标准还存在一些问题。文中主要对日负荷预测准确率和日合格点百分数进行了比较分析 ,揭示出这两种考核指标之间的内在联系 ,并对存在的问题进行了针对性研究 ,界定了这两种考核标准的适用范围。在对实际负荷进行概率统计分析的基础上 ,初步给出了针对具体电网负荷变化的规律性制定考核标准的参考方案 ,并验证了其可行性更多还原

【Abstract】 The accuracy of load forecasting is a measure to illustrate the load forecasting result, which is used as an supervision index by the authority departments to encourage the operators to improve their forecasting result. There exist three main problems in the two types of the accuracy criteria in application. Comparisons of the two accuracy indices, which are the day-load-forecasting-precision and the day-qualified-point-percent, are made in this paper. Theoretical analysis shows the inherent relationship between the criteria. Some studies on the reference scheme are carried out purposely. A reasonable and appropriate accuracy criterion is provided based on statistical characteristics of individual load. Some instances of real load forecast verify the feasibility of the reference scheme.更多还原