【摘要】 在系统收集和分析中国大陆的活动构造、地震活动和地球物理场资料的基础上,初步圈定出769个构造物理潜在震源,并对其中477个位于主要强震区、带内的潜在震源进行了空间几何定量描述和基本震源参数的系统分析,在GIS平台上开发了分析系统,逐一计算了每一潜在震源的十年发震概率,圈定了1999～2008年的强震危险区,根据发震概率的大小对危险区的危险性进行分类。近几年发生的强震与预测结果的对比检验结果表明,用构造物理模型确定的十年地震危险区具有较好的预测效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Having collected and analyzed the active faults, seismicity and geophysical fields, 769 potential tectonophysical seismic sources were defined. 477 sources studied in this paper are located along major seismic belts in China’s continent. The spatial geometric data are quantitatively described and the source parameters are systematically studied. The analytical system is developed on GIS platform. The probability of strong earthquake occurrence in the decade is calculated. The danger regions in 1999~2008 are predicted. These danger regions can be divided into 3 grades according to their probability. The prediction shows a good result predicting the strong earthquake occurrence from 1999 to 2001 in China’s continent.更多还原