【摘要】 初步探讨了灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型用于预测井灌水稻区渠道水温的可行性和合理性,并建立了用于预测水温的灰色模型,经过相对误差及后验差检验,结果表明预测精度等级为Ⅰ级,表明该方法对估计水温时序值是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The feasibility and rationality applied the model of the gray system theory to forecast the water temperature in the channel for the well irrigation rice area was discussed in the paper. A gray model was established. Through fra ctional error and posteriori variance examination, the result shows the forecast accuracy is first class and the method can use to estimate the time series valu e.更多还原