【摘要】 由于受人类活动和自然因素的综合影响 ,自 2 0世纪 50年代以来 ,我国年平均气温已升高了 0 68℃ ,其中黄河以北地区平均升高了 0 8～ 1 2℃ ,黄河以南地区平均下降了 0 2～ 0 8℃ ;而北方年降水量减少 ,南方却增加 ,南涝北旱加剧。经模拟预测后认为 ,我国从 1 987年开始的气候变暖将持续到 2 0 1 5年 ,将于 2 0 1 6年转入低温期 ,2 0 39年又将转入高温期。到 2 0 2 0年全国年平均气温将比 2 0世纪 50年代升高 1 68℃ ,西北地区平均升高 2 2 2℃ ;南方年平均降水量增加 2 8mm ,北方变化不大 ;2 0 30年海平面将升高 5 3～ 1 4 2cm ,气候将向暖、干的趋势发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Subjected to the integrated influence of mans activities and astronomical and natural factors, Chinas annual average temperature has risen by 0 68℃ since 1950s, with a rise of 0 80～1 20℃ in the northern region and a fall of 0 20～0 80℃ in the southern of the Yellow River; the change of annual precipitation is similar to that of temperature, with a decrease in the north and an increase in the south, hence worsening the condition of flood in the south and drought in the north simultaneously. Through simulated forecast, the paper holds that the warmer climate beginning from 1987 in China will last till 2015, low temperature period will occur in 2016 and warmer phase wont appear until 2039; that by 2020 the national annual average temperature will be 1 68℃ higher compared with that in 1950s while in the western region, 2 22℃; that annual precipitation will increase 28 mm in the south with little change in the north; and that sea level will be 5 3～14 2 cm higher in 2030 with a warmer and drier trend in climate.更多还原