【摘要】 本文在分析影响国际金融中心形成和运行因素的基础上 ,本着易量化、数据容易获得、简洁和与国际金融中心的形成和运行具有较高相关度的原则 ,构建了国际金融中心的评估指标体系 ,然后利用 1998—2 0 0 0年纽约、东京、伦敦、新加坡、香港、汉城、上海和泰国这八个地区与国家的数据 ,通过回归和参数检验的方法 ,从实证和统计的角度检验所设计的国际金融中心评估指标体系中的指标对国际金融中心评估的显著性。最后 ,利用得到的回归模型对上海成为国际金融中心的可能性进行预测和分析 ,发现目前上海离国际金融中心仍有一定的差距 ,这个距离主要体现在金融方面。上海能否在短期内成为国际金融中心的关键在于上海的金融业能否迅速发展 ,提高金融产业的产值占GDP的比重和进一步完善金融市场更多还原

【Abstract】 firstly, this paper focuses on building up a valuation indicator system which is according to the principle of easily quantification, available data, simplification and highly correlation with the performance and formation of international financial centre and is based on analysis of factors that influence the formation and performance of international financial centre. secondly, from the point of view of positivism and statistics, it uses the datum coming from new York, Tokyo, London ,Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, shanghai and Thailand to test the notable result of the indicators of designed international indicator valuation system to the practice of valuation by method of regression and coefficient test. Lastly, it uses the regression model to predict and analyse the possibility of shanghai becoming an international financial centre and find out that there are some distances between shanghai and other international financial centres. The distances mainly dwell in the financial sector. The key factors that decide if shanghai become an international financial centre in the short run are the fast development of financial industry, increasing the proportion of the output value of financial industry in the total GDP and further perfection of financial market.更多还原