【摘要】 作者对浙江省桐庐农业区的黑线姬鼠的种群数量变化进行了研究。在1985～1995年系统调查的基础上研究了黑线姬鼠的动态模型,该模型包含趋势部分、季节部分和随机波动部分,并对三部分给出估计和预测值。用上述动态模型描述黑线姬鼠种群变化规律,为中长期预测预报提供了新的应用方法。1995年7～12月田间实际结果检验表明,模型的预测与实际结果一致。用该方法建立预测式作中长期种群的预报,是较为精确有效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mid-long term dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) is effected by many factors. In present paper deals with the relationship of the population dynamics. Based on the systematic investigation in agricultural fields from 1985 to 1995,the population dynamics of Apodemus agrarius were studied. A prediction models were proposed. The models were given estimating and forecasting values. This article supplied a new applicable method for mid-term forecasting of Apodemus agrarius. The result of field examinations in 7 - 12 months in 1995 showed that the decisions made by the models were quite consistent and corresponded.更多还原