【摘要】 自从地震危险性概率分析方法问世以来，不确定性就突出地存在．从该方法本身分析，认为潜在震源区范围、地震动衰减关系、震级上限、年发生率、ｂ值、起算震级是６个不确定性因素．计算结果表明，不确定性因素对地震烈度的影响较小，对峰值加速度的影响较大．由于不确定性因素对计算结果造成系统偏差，可通过权系数Ｐ进行校正，并给出了具体的校正公式．更多还原

【Abstract】 Since methods of seismic risk probability analysis were published,uncertainties have existed projectingly.The latent earthquake zone,the earthquake motion attenuation regularity,the earthquake up limitation magnitude,the yearly earthquake ratio,the coefficient b and the beginning calculation earthquake magnitude are six uncertainties of the methods.According to calculation results.the influence of uncertainties to the earthquake intensity is smaller than to the peak earthquake acceleration.Because the influence of uncertainties to calculation results is a systematic deviation,it can be corrected according to the coefficient P,and correction formulas to uncertainties are given finally.更多还原