【摘要】 1995年－1997年，采用现场调查和资料对比分析方法，进行了三峡建坝后对洞庭湖区血吸虫病传播影响的预测研究，结果表明三峡建坝后长江入湖流量虽有变化，但对洞庭湖钉螺分布影响不大；10月－11月退水期提前，可缩短秋季感染期。建坝后50年内年平入湖泥沙较建坝前减少80％以上，钉螺分布面积将因洲滩增长速度减慢而趋于稳定。泥沙淤积减少将引起芦苇退化，部份芦滩可能转化为污染较严重的草滩、芦杂滩，在这些地区活动的入群血吸虫感染率可能上升。80年后入湖泥沙增加，钉螺分布面积增长速度又将加快，水库死库容淤满后，又可能达到建坝前水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of the transmission of schistosomiasis in the Dongting lake region was pre dicted by field investigation and comparative data analysis from 1995 to 1997. The findings showed that although there will be some changes in the rate of flow from Yangtze River to the Dongting lake after the construction of dam in the Three Gorges,no impact on the distri bution of Oncomelania snail in the Dongting lake region took place. Due to the advance of re ceding period in October and November,the infection period will be shortened in autumn.Within 50 years after the dam is constructed,the silt flowing into the lake will be decreased by over 80%,and some of the reed beach probably will turn to weed beach with pollution,which will increase the infection rate of mobile population there. 80 years later,silt flowing into the lake will increase and snail-ridden area will also speed up. Once the reservoir is full of silt and become dead one, the situation will be as same as before,ie., pre-dam construc tion.更多还原