【摘要】 以隔河岩电站２０１夹层置换硐现场测试数据为基础，从位移时序曲线的特征出发，提出并验证用加速度作为状态稳定识别判据的可行性。对于稳定情况，讨论了用灰色系统Ｇｍ（１，１）模型预测最终收敛位移；对于失稳的情况，探讨了用“黄金分割法”预测失稳时间。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,according to monitoring date of Ge heyan hydrculic Power station No.201 layer replacement and features displacement time curves the possibility to use acceleration as a factor of state identification is suggested and testified .In the stable cases, the prediction of the ultimate convergence displacements by means GM(1,1) model of grey system is discussed.In the unstable circumstances, Golden section is used to porecasting unstable time.更多还原