【摘要】 文中将多层递阶时间序列方法用于土壤盐分动态的预报，方法简单，计算工作量小，预报精度高，而且避免了利用确定性方法预报时所遇到的困难。实例分析表明，本方法通过对于时变参数的追踪和预报，加上模型本身可修复的特点，使对土壤盐分动态的预测精度得以提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 A multi-layer hierarchical time series model was used for the prediction of soilsalinity. The method was simple and the prediction precision was improved byforecasting and tracking the parameters of the model. The comparison betWeen thePredicted and measured results in a large irrigation area showed the good reliability ofthe method.更多还原