【摘要】 在描述文献增长的诸多模型中，线性增长模型更适合于某一特定文献类型的短期预测。本文依据我国７８至９６年各年间中文科技期刊的种数，利用最小平方法，拟合出中文科技期刊种数随时间增长的线性方程。针对各年间科技期刊种数存在着自相关的现象，建立了剔除序列相关后的预测模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Of a number of methods in describing periodical increase a model of linear incrase is more suitable for a short-term forecast of a certain special periodical. In this paper the method of OLS is used to arrange a linear regress-ion regression equation according to the kinds of periodical on science and technology in Chinese in the years 1978-1996. In accordance with the interrelation phenomenon among the kind of each year’s peridical a forecast moedel has been set up after rejecting alignment interrelation.更多还原