【摘要】 徐士钰．Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的统计规律性研究．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（３），３１～３６．本文应用国家工业化发展阶段理论［１］及基于Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模须和国家工业化发展水平的需要和可能相适应的认识，把所述发达国家和部分先进的发展中国家在不同工业化发展阶段上Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的变化过程，都看成是某一非平稳随机过程的一个实现（样本），并用皮尔（Ｐｅａｒｌ）生长曲线模型近似描述该非平稳随机过程均值的变化规律，结果与现实情况符合程度较高，本文揭示的Ｒ＆Ｄ投资规模的这一统计规律，对于发展中国家及我国在制订宏观科技投资政策时，具有较高的参考价值更多还原

【Abstract】 ? This paper is based on the theory of development stage of country industrialization and on the knowledge that R&D investment scale must suit the needs and probable of development level of country industrialization. We regard the change process of R&D investment scale on the differential development stage of country industrialization for every developed and advanced developing county as a sample of nonstationary stochastic process. The change law of mean value of this stochastic process was described as “pearl” model.Its results tally with the actual situation and will be desirable for that developing countries and our country formulate a macroscopic scientific and technical policy.更多还原