【摘要】 本文从近海异常海温的定义和形成机制出发，在原有的海表温度数值预报模式的基础上，考虑了上层海洋对强天气强迫的动力响应和浅海效应，前者包括卷入和卷出、冷水抽吸和暖水辐聚，后者包括潮混合和浅海对短波吸收之影响，从而建立了一个以混合层的温、流、深度为变量的中国近海异常海温数值预报模式．更多还原

【Abstract】 ──Based on the definition of the offshore SST anomaly (O-SSTA) and its generating mechanism, the predicting model has been established. It is consisted of three part: equations of dynamics, equations of mode’s physics and equations of affecting factors of O-SSTA. The latter, which is stressed here, includes the dynamic response of upper ocean on the strong atmospheric forcing and shallow sea effects, such as the en- trainment, Ekman pumping, tidal mixing and absorptivity for solar radiation. The predicting variables consist of the temperature (SST) , drift current and depth of upper mixed layer.更多还原