【摘要】 用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ将甘肃省伏期降水分为７个区域，并在每个区域中选取了一个代表站。设计出既能反映伏期降水多少，又能反映伏期旱段长度的伏旱强度指数。将伏旱强度指数与伏旱发生的概率联系起来。通过对大气环流特征指数、地面气象要素等因子的分析，利用逐步回归分析和多级逐步判别分析方法，建立了甘肃省几个代表站的伏期干旱指数的概率预报方程。提出了集成概率预测的概念。最后给出了对伏旱概率预测进行评估的一种方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 ummer precipitation of Gansu province is divided into seven regions by using EOF and REOF method, a representative station is selected in each region. An index of summer drought intensity is designed which indicate not only summer precipitation but also drought duration in summer. The index of summer drought intensity was combined with the summer drought probability. Summer drought probability forecast equations of representative stations were established by analyzing general circulation feature index and surface meteorological essential factors and using the method of stepwise regression analysis and stepwise discriminate analysis. The concept of assembly probability forecast is put forward. Moreover, a method evaluating summer drought probability forecasts is given.更多还原