【摘要】 分别给出了将ＡＲＭＡＸ模型及多层ＢＰ网络应用于流量演算中模型参数确定的方法；提出了一种可进行误差实时校正的改进ＡＲＭＡＸ模型，并认为该模型实质上是一种特殊的两层ＢＰ网络；用一个实际算例将改进ＡＲＭＡＸ模型与多层ＢＰ网络两种方法作了对比分析．更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to deal with the nonlinear problems in flow routing, two methods based on AR- MAX model and multilayer BP neural networks are developed respectively. An improved ARMAX model is presented which could rectify errors in real-time. This model is a special kind of two-layer BP network actually. The comparison of the efficiency of the two methods is analyzed theoretically. The BP model could simulate the real nonlinear hydrologic systems directly. The simulated results indicate that both of the methods are of high efficiency.更多还原