【摘要】 对华北地区1970年以来ML4．0以上地震的月相效应进行了分析。结果表明，华北地区Ms5．0以上地震活动的月相效应并不明显，而是呈现较强的随机性。但在7级以上强震发生前，中等地震的发生具有较为明显的月相效应，这对7级以上强震的发生具有中期（1～3年）预测意义。未来强震可能发生在“朔望地震”分布的地区。目前，华北地区中等地震发生没有显示明显的月相效应，因此未来1～2年内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 The effect of lunar phase of earthquakes with M. ≥4. 0 occurred in North China since 1970 is analyzed. The results indicate that the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥5. 0 does not show correlation with the lunar phase and is obviously stochastic. Before the strong earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0, however, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake is obviously related to the lunar phase. It is significant in the medium-and short-term predic-tion of earthquakes Ms ≥7. 0. When the moderate earthquakes occur near the period of new moon or full moon, the future strong earthquakes would occur. At Present , the oc-currence of the moderate earthquakes in North China does not show correlation to the lu-nar phase , so theposslbllity of the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0 will be rela-tively low.更多还原