【摘要】 回顾性地分析了1996年12月16日顺义Ms4．0地震前，首都圈的异常演变情况及利用加卸载响应比等方法对该地震震前形势及震后趋势进行的综合判断。结果表明，顺义地震前测展学及非测震学均存在地震前兆，这些前兆具有一定程度的中期向短期演化的特点。利用响应比除可以对主展作出一定程度的预测外，还能对较大余震作出不同程度的预测。作者还探讨了地震日常监测中须要汲取的经验教训。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evolutional process of anomalies in the Capital Area before Shunyi M 4. 0 earth-quake and the judgement of tendencies before and after the shock by using the Load/Un-load Response Ratio (LURR) and other methods are described in this paper. The resultsshow that the earthquake precursors in seismology and other observational fields beforethe shock’exist, and these precursors show the evolutional characteristics of developingfrom the medium term to short term to some extent. LURR could not only predict the ma-jor earthquake to certain extent, but also some bigger aftershocks in varying degrees-Some experiences and lessons in routine earthquake prediction are also discussed in this pa-per.更多还原