【摘要】 在洞庭湖水灾现状和特征分析的基础上，利用水平衡方程对洞庭湖及四水水系的水情作了进一步的模拟分析。初步估计了流域的泄流系数Fo，保水系数Fs和蓄水系数FR。得到洞庭湖随洪峰入湖流量而变化的水位日增量和湘、资、沅、四水流域随集中降水量而变化的水位总增量。进而对洞庭湖水患的防治提出了综合的治理方略：（1）增加蓄洪面积，预田蓄洪；（2）增大泄流系数，有控泄流；（3）减少入流流量，有效蓄水；（4）加固堤防工程，有备无患。减少入流流量，有效蓄水，就是在洞庭湖上游的四水流域，除了增加水库型集中蓄水外，还要人工地增加降水滞流量，也就是在全流域增加分散性蓄水机能，进行研究水田蓄水、旱土蓄水、草地蓄水及林地蓄水等的蓄洪限度、实施技术及蓄洪以外的经济效益，以及流域人工增加降水滞流量的巨大潜力。本文分析认为，只有对洞庭湖及其流域的水旱灾害实施综合治理，才是根治洞庭湖水患的有效方略，将对湖南社会经济可持续发展起重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the ground of analysis of flood activity and characteristics in Dongting drainage area, this article presents a water-balance equation for water imitation of Dongting Lake and Xiang-Zi-Yuan-Li Rivers drainage system, and gives an imitation analysis of the flood height as well as its evolution. According to the preliminary estimation of the sluice coefficient F.(ratio of outflow to inflow), the storage coefficient FR(ratio of water storaged by reservoirs to rainfall precipitation), and the retardance coefficient Fs(ratio of water kept by land rainfall precipitation) in the whole drainage basin, the author has inferred a daily-increment of flood height (m) in Dongting Lake via the variation of flood inflow flux and a flood height increment (m) in Xiang-Zi-Yuan-Li Rivers via the variation of rainfall precipitation.According to the water-balance equation, some synthetic maintenance strategies to prevent possible floods in Dongting Lake have been presented as follows: (1) To increase floodwater storage, (2) to enlarge the sluice, (3) to increase artificially the retardance of rainfall precipitation from upstreams for decreasing the amount of inflow going to Dongting Lake, and (4) to reinforce the embankment.As mentioned in this article, to increase artificially the retardance coefficient of rainfall precipitation is more potential, such as methods of water storing in irrigated, arid, meadow and woodland fields, besides water-storage reservoirs. Study of the retardance coefficient of rainfall precipitation will be more important to prevent catastropic floods Dongting Lake and to keep economically sustainable development.更多还原