【摘要】 以乌鲁木齐河源１号冰川、唐古拉山冬克玛底冰川和祁连山“七一”冰川为例，着重探讨青藏高原冰川变化的能量机制．得到了在不同气候变化情景下，冰川平衡线对气候因子波动的响应值，并预测未来气候变化对青藏高原冰川物质平衡过程的影响．文中所选取的３条冰川中，以１号冰川对气候变化的响应最为强烈，而“七一”冰川以其独特的能量交换特征，对气候因子波动的响应相当迟缓，从而在全球山地冰川普遍缩小规模的背景下，该冰川处于相对较为稳定的状态．更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes the Dongkemadi Glacier in the Tanggula Mts., the Glacier No. 1 in the headwarters of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mts. and the July First Glacier in the Qilian Mts. as studying objects. The energy mechanisms for glacier fluctuation are discussed. As an indictor of climatic change, the ELA has linear correlation with mass blance. A model is established to study and forecast the ELA. From this model, it can be obtained the ELA responding to climatic factors under different future climatic scenarios. Meaewhile, the future effects of climate change on mass balance were also forecasted. Among the three glaciers, the Glacier No. 1 is more sensitive to climate fluctuation, and the July first Glacier, with its especial features of energy exchange, is quite sluggish to climate fluctuation so that the glacier is almost stationary under the background of most glaciers all over the word in retreat.更多还原