【摘要】 针对传统的城市人口规模演化模型，尤其是Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ增长型模型所存在的局限性，应用分支理论提出了城市人口规模分支演化模型；并分别对其进行了分支稳定性分析与随机性分析和描述（包括分支概率的极大极小判别以及随机涨落分析）；最后将分支模型应用于天津市区人口规模演化的一段历史踪迹的分析，并与Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型进行了对比以说明该模型的优越性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In This paper, in accordance with the defects of the traditional population evolution model, especialy to the Logistic model, a new evolution bifurcation model is proposed based on Bifurcation thoery.The bifurcation stability and its stochastic description, including the bifurcation probability and stochastic fluctuation are analysised.Finally, the historic evolution track of Tianjin population size is discussed by the bifurcation model,and the comparision with the Logistc model is made in order to illustrate the Bifurcation model’s superiority and efficiency.更多还原