【摘要】 对１２～１６年生的油松优树半同胞子代林生长过程中树高年——年秩次相关、表型和遗传相关统计分析结果表明，油松早晚期高生长有一定紧密关系，进行早期预测和选择是可行的。用家系５～８年生和单株３～６年生树高可以预测１２～１６ａ的高生长。从选择效率考虑家系最宜选择年龄在１０～１２ａ，单株最宜选择年龄在１２年生后；最宜选择年龄时的家系早期选择效率是４０～５０ａ时的１．９６～１．９８倍，单株的选择效率低于家系；最宜选择年龄随主伐年龄的增大而增大。不同育苗方式和是否能有效控制试验环境，对早期评价的可靠性和精度有影响更多还原

【Abstract】 Early selection for stem growth was studied, based on the data from two progeny plantations,derived from open pollinated seeds of plus trees in Shaanxi Province. Results showed that height growth of 12-16 year-old pine could be predicted at the age of 5-8,since both phenotypic and genetic correlations were significant.Family selections could be made at the age of 10-12 with high reliability,individual selection should be made after the age of 12. The optimal selection age increased with the increase of harvest age. However,effective control of test environments would raise the reliability of early selection. The efficiency of the early selections is about 1.96-1.98 times more than that of the age of 40 to 50.更多还原