【摘要】 针对石油开发项目经济评价过程中存在的诸多问题进行分析研究，提出了通过对差额寿命期内基准折现率的修正等方法，解决直井与水平井方案比选时寿命期不等问题的方法；通过对钻井费用类型的重新划分及对油气藏参数的“历史拟合”，有效降低了项目评价中关键参数的预测误差；通过对方案评价指标的分析研究，提出了净现值与净现值率相结合的方案比选评价方法；并针对石油钻井－开发项目随机因素多、风险大等特点，对其进行蒙特卡罗风险模拟分析，提高了评价方法的可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper is the evaluation on the economic effect of a horizontal well. By modifying the MARR,the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return,within the marginal planning horizon makes a vertical well and a horizontal well with different planning horizons,can be compared on the same level,thus the precision of evalua- non can be also improved remarkablely. Through analying the character of horizontal well’s variable prefile and the defects of cost classification made before, the dissertation reclassifys the drilling cost items according to the nature time-concerned so that the error of drilling cost predication can be reduced effectively. Because of the high risk of the drilling project,the undefinite analysis commonly used can not meet its demand,Monte Carlo method is introduced to simulate the complex case in order to make the evaluation method much more dependable, then compared with the vertical well,a comparative evaluation method is set up defered to the rule made by the State Planning Commission.更多还原