【摘要】 本文通过对余弦模型与园形分布方法的估计参数计算与比较，认为二者的基础计算方法相同，结果相等，均可求分布高峰时点和ｒ值，且算式更为简单（式９．１２），Ａ值和ｒ值可相互求得（式１３）。余弦模型可进一步作拟合效果分析，发病趋势预测等。在疾病高峰期的分析中，余弦模型可以代替园形分布方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 By means of calculation and comparison of the estimated parameters of cosine model and circular distribution method,the data indicated that the basic calculation methods of both were same and the results of them were equal.Both could be used in the calculation of distribution peak time and the r value,but the calculating procedure of cosine model was more simple than the circular distribution method,the A value and the r value could be obtained from each other.Cosine model could be used in the effectiveness of fitting and estimation of disease tendency.The authors suggested that the cosine model could be instead of circular distribution method in the analysis of disease peak period.更多还原