【摘要】 提出一种从洪水形成机制出发,考虑天文潮、风暴增水、洪峰增水、地区降雨及地面沉降等因素,以重点抽样模拟技术求解联合分布的新方法。以上海为例,按本方法采用400年一遇即可代替1000年一遇超大重现期设计水位值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the mechnism formation of flood in this paper presented a new method of calculation design water level by considering astronomical tide, storm surge, flood peak run - off, precipitation, land sink. . factors, which influence on water level. By using simulation technique and method ISP (Importance Sampling Procedure) the multi -demen-sional joint probabibistic distribution with non-Gaussian and non - independent courses can be solued successfully. As an example, for Shanghai the nowaday’s accepted design criteria with 1000 years return period equals the same value calculated by above mentioned method but only with 400 years return period.更多还原