【摘要】 本文以小波分析的多分辨分析理论为基础，建立了一个自适应的多分辨数据滤波器。该滤波器不仅具有传统方法所不具有的局部化、多层次、多分辨的优点，而且对于突变点的判断也象Ｍ－Ｋ方法一样的精确。此外，该滤波器还具有可以同时判别多个突变点而不改变原时间序列的大尺度结构的优点。本文的应用表明：中国近百年来的气温变化主要经历了三个持续近３０年的冷暖交替，它们分别是１９１９年以前的偏冷期；１９２０年至１９５４年的偏暖期和１９５５年至１９８６年的偏冷期。对应于这种较大时间尺度的气候演变，中国的气温变化表现出了十分明显的突变特性，其冷暖交替的突变点分别发生在１９２０年、１９５５年和１９８７年。对应于较小时间尺度的气候演变来说，中国近百年来的气温变化则增加了更多冷暖交替的层次结构和突变点。云南近百年来的气温变化与中国的气温变化是基本一致的，但与北半球和全球的气温变化并不完全一致，其中最主要的差异是北半球和全球的气温变化在１９５５年至１９７８年是一个极弱的偏冷期，１９７９年发生明显增暖的突变，而云南和中国的气温变化在１９５５年至１９８６年则是一个极强的偏冷期，从１９８７年开始才出现明显增暖的突变更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, an adaptive multiresolution data filter has been established by using multiresolute theory of wavelet analysis. This filter not only has advantages such as locality, multiscale, multiresolution, which the traditional methods lack, but also is as accurate to determining catastrophe points as the M K method. In addition, this filter can determine the several catastrophe points at the same time without smoothing the large scale structure. The applications results show that the air temperature variations during the last 100 years in China have passed three main cold and warm vicissitudes of lasting 30 years, which include the cold period before the 1919, the warm period from 1920 to 1954 and the cold period from 1955 to 1986. Corresponding to the larger scale climatic changes, the air temperature variations in China obviously show the catastrophe features whose jumping points occured in 1920, in 1955 and in 1987. Corresponding to the smaller scale climatic changes, the air temperature variations in China increase more the hierarchies and jumping points with the cold and warm vicissitudes. Though the temperature variations of Yunnan Province are similar to those of China, they are different from those of the Northern Hemisphere and Globe. Their main differences are that there is a weaker cold period in temperature variations from 1955 to 1978 and a jumping point of warming in 1979 in the Northern Hemisphere and Globe, but there is a stronger cold period from 1955 to 1986 and a jumping point of warming in 1987 in China.更多还原