【摘要】 部件寿命预测过程中应根据部件运行经济效益最佳的原则选择寿命预测置信度，由此可避免因置信度太高而导致大量部件尚可使用就被更换，或置信度太低而出现大量的突发性事故．利用Monte-Carlor方法讨论了GH132合金烟机涡轮盘的最佳设计寿命．更多还原

【Abstract】 To avoid unnecessory retirement or unexpected failure of large components operating at elevated temperature, a method is recommended to choose a reasonabl value of confidence of life predition for components. Monte-Carior method is used to estimate the lifehme of discs used in oil refinery power recovery gas expanders.更多还原