【摘要】 在建立事故致因突变模型的基础上，提出了危险评价的尖点突变模型，即建立以系统可靠性和系统危险性为两个控制变量，以系统功能为状态变量的尖点突变模型（ＣＵＳＰ），对系统进行危险评价。利用这一模型，在对系统可靠度和系统危险性进行量化后，可得到状态变量——系统功能在发生突变时的突跳范围，按照一定评判标准，可判定系统危险程度，实现对系统的安全控制更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of catastrophe construction for accident-causing,this paper builds a CUSP model for risk assessment.By setting both system reliability and system risk as two control variables,and the function of system as state variable,we can evaluate the risk of a system.The“jump” range of state variable (system function)can be gained by the CUSP model after having qualified the system riliability and system risk.Comparing the jump range with an assessment criteria ,the risk level of a system will be determined.更多还原