【摘要】 利用我国玉米带12个有代表性地点的作物、土壤和天气资料,验证了CERES-Maize在我国的适用性,确定了各地有代表性品种在模型中的遗传参数,还对模型进行了敏感性分析。之后,将CERES-Maize在各地当前气候以及在3种由平衡GCMs生成的气候变化情景下分别运行,通过分析与比较模拟结果,评价了当CO₂倍增时,气候变化对我国各地玉米产量和灌溉需要量的可能影响,对CO₂的直接影响也做了考虑。还应用若干农业气候指标,评价了未来研究区域的干湿状况、耕作制度和品种布局的变化等。最后通过模拟试验,分析了若干适应气候变化的栽培对策的可行性。本文提交的结果不是一种预测,应将其理解为就未来气候变化影响我国玉米生产所作的合理估计。更多还原

【Abstract】 The CERES-Maize model was calibrated and validated for 12 locations in China’s Maize Belt to examine its suitability to model maize production in the region, using the local agronomic, soil and weather data for three or more successive years. After making sensitivity analysis and determining the genetic coefficients for the local cultivars. the CERES-Maize was run again for the same locations under the current climates and the three doubled CO2 climate change scenarios generated from the GISS. GFDL and UKMO equilibrium GCMS. Based on the simulated results analysis, the impacts of climate change with a doubling of CO2 on maize growth duration, yield and irrigation demand in China’s Maize Belt were evaluated. Also, changes in moisture status, the northern limits for summer-and autumn-sowing maize, as well as varietal disposition were estimated by employing several agroclimatic indices. Finally, some strategies were advanced for adapting climate change in future. The results presented in this study should not be regarded as predictions, but as plausible assessments of the potential impact effects of climate change on maize production in China.更多还原