【摘要】 水击发生的条件及影响水击的各种因素的随机性决定了水击现象的随机性。本文从水击极值近似解析式出发推导了由水库、管道及阀门组成的简单管的水击最大升压解析概率分布，随后引入了随机数值模拟方法。算例表明数值模拟法和解析法结果吻合很好，而水击随机分析与传统的定量计算方法存在相当大的差距。文中还初步讨论了简单管水击概率的分布规律。更多还原

【Abstract】 The randomness of conditions under which waterhammer occurs and factors which affect waterhammer pressures result in the stochaticism of waterhammer phenomena.The analytic probability functions of the maximum waterhammer pressure in a reservoirpipe-valve system are first derived in this paper,based on simplified waterhammer formulas. A stochastic numerical simulation is then proposed.The computational examples show that the results from both the analytic analysis and the numerical simulation agree very well with each other,but differ from those by traditional definite methods. The law of probability distribution of waterhammer in single pipe is finally discussed.更多还原